Election Predictions

Not comprehensive, but still 15 pages long and written in three hours.  

Sorry I didn’t include exact percentages and in-depth analysis for all the congressional races and toss up Presidential states, but I just didn’t have the time and energy, it was too large of a project to put off until 5:10 today. As it stands it is 15 pages long, so, enjoy.

Election Predictions

All Right, I promised, so know I’m providing. After the election I’ll display the actual results compared to my predicted results.

Senate Races:

First let me begin with the major Senate races, my predictions and my brief analyses on them.

VA-SEN: Senator, umm, I mean Mr. Mark Warner is already getting his new name plates made. The only question is how much over 60% will the insanely popular former Governor get in this open seat race against his controversial and unpopular predecessor Jim Gilmore? I’m going with three points, and a 63-37 race. Gilmore only barely won his convention against a far-right nobody, and has been plagued by poor fundraising and campaigning from the very beginning. When universally popular and respected five term Senator John Warner, (no relation), announced his retirement last year at age 80, and Mark jumped in, that’s when every pundit knew this race was the Democrat’s to lose, and they definitely have not so far, in fact they’ve gotten every break they could hope to get. It looks this year like Virginia will complete its blue trend and have two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor for the first time since 1973. Obama is set to carry the state too, the first Democrat since 1964. Democratic pick up.

Mark Warner, (D), 63-37. Winner.

NM-SEN: When six term Senator Pete Domenici announced his retirement, admitting he had dementia, this seat became the hottest in the nation. Then popular U.S. Representative Tom Udall, of the famed western Kennedy’s family of Stewart and Mo Udall, jumped in. The states other two U.S. Representatives jumped in too, so that uniquely, all three of its US House seats were open as all were running for senate, (an open senate seat there doesn’t happen but every 30 years or so, so you’ve got to take the chance when you get it). Then in the primary far-right Steve Pearce, who represented the southern, conservative end of the state, won the primary over moderate Heather Wilson who represented the Democratic leaning area around Bernalillo county, (Albuquerque), over the wishes of the party elite, who with Domenici, (who had groomed Wilson as an heir), coalesced around Wilson. It was expensive, and divisive, and best of all Udall just got to sit back and watch, while amassing a huge warchest of money. In late summer Udall moved up into the mid 60s in polling, and the NRSCC wrote the race off, (that’s the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee shortened),. However former Bush Press Secretary Ari Fletcher’s shady group Freedom’s Watch, spent heavily here, and Pearce spent millions. The race moved into single digits again after the Palin bounce, but since, with the economic crisis dominating the news and Udall retaking the airwaves his lead has moved back into the double digits.

Democratic pick up: Tom Udall, (D), 58-42. (On the conservative side). Winner

NH-SEN: This was the site of the infamous phone-jamming rig-up up by the NH-GOP. In 2002 they jammed the GOTV efforts of Democrats while three-term Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen was in a narrow race with U.S. Representative John Sununu, (son of the Bush chief of Staff and former NH Governor John Sununu), he won by six thousand votes in a year that was very favorable to Republicans. Well, several Republicans went to jail, including some from the RNC, (Republican National Committee), and the NH-GOP was ordered to pay the NH-DP several hundred thousand dollars of reparations, (imagine that as a fundraising pitch to the base, “Donate to us so we can pay your money to the other side”). Anyhow, Shaheen is back this year, and running a better campaign in a much better environment. Sununu has consistently been too strongly conservative for this Democratic leaning state, (trending more all the time). Factor in the face that he’s been behind consistently in every poll for over a year, and you get where I’m going. Shaheen has a high single digits lead in the tail end of the campaign, and the NRSCC also seems to writing this race off. Sununu retains a devoted following, but with Obama surging here late, the one break he hoped to have help him is gone, (McCain coattails, or at least a lack of Obama coattails). Democratic Pick up.

So, projected: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 54-46, winner.

CO-SEN: Another Udall! Tom’s second cousin Mark, from a few hundred miles up north, representing Boulder, Colorado and some of Denver’s inner suburbs. Mark’s about ten years younger, and in the slightly more Republican state, (but rapidly trending Democratic), of Colorado. Now its becoming a Democratic state along with the rest of the southwest. Here too, like Virginia and New Mexico, (though New Mexico was the only one with a primary), conservative Republicans pushed out the more moderate candidate in favor of a more reactionary conservative. Mark Udall has had a upper single digits lead in polling for about two years, but has recently pulled away, along with Obama in the state that McCain has now written off in favor of Pennsylvania. Udall is fairly liberal actually, but he has won the battle of who can moderate themselves and move closer to the center in this race. Schaffer is not backing down from his conservative beliefs, and he will lose. Democratic Pick up.

Projected: Mark Udall, (D), 55-45, winner.

AK-SEN: Well, it’s hard to get elected when you’ve been indicted on seven counts of fraud. That’s what happened to the longest serving Republican Senator in history, Ted Stevens, first elected in 1968, and currently 84 years old. Add into the mix a popular Democrat, Anchorage, (home of two thirds of the state’s population), mayor Mark Begich, son of former Congressman Nick Begich who disappeared along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs in a mysterious 1973 plane crash, (presumed), on the way to Juneau. The conviction sealed Steven’s fate, as his whole campaign theme was vote for me because of my clout, and that the prosecutors were targeting him unfairly. Both arguments are gone now, and McCain has even called for the Senator to resign, as has Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Voters now he will probably be expelled from the Senate on a bi-partisan vote if reelection, so, (and the polls show this), Begich has regained his lead and is extremely likely to win this, being the first Democrat election to a federal office in Alaska since 1974, (with Mike Gravel, actually, anyone remember his run for the Democratic Presidential nomination this time around?). Democratic Pick up.

Projection: Mark Begich, (D), (how weird, after having no Marks in the Senate now we’ll have three), 53-47. Winner over Ted “The Incredible Hulk” Stevens.

NC-SEN: Just a quick lesson, you don’t run a campaign ad calling your opponent, a former Sunday School teacher and fifth generation Presbyterian, Godless. You also don’t flash her face on the screen while a paid actress says “There is no God”. Now Bob Dole’s wife, first term senator Elizabeth Dole was still behind, but that ad sealed her defeat, and the very last polls confirm it. The DSCC, (the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee), has been brutally affective here, calling into question Dole’s effectiveness as a Senator, and attacking her for only spending about 18 days a year in the state she represents. “The Rocking Chair Ad” was perhaps the best ad in terms of effectiveness, in a number of years. State Senator Kay Hagan, Chairwoman of the State Senate Finance committee, has been running a strong campaign though, crisscrossing the state and effectively beating Dole in every measure. She won her primary huge, and surged, so Dole spent two million of her warchest to try to nip it at its bud, but this only worked about a month before the DSCC came in and shot her numbers in the polls back down. Hagan has had a consistent lead, and last minute polls from SUSA and PPP, and Rasmussen show Hagan moving firmly ahead, above 50% and outside the margin of error. Still going to be close though, but…Democratic Pick up.

Projection: Kay Hagan (D), 52-48, winner.

OR-SEN: Two Term Senator Gordon Smith, (also related to the Udalls), hasn’t done anything wrong, he’s just a Republican in Oregon and his record as a moderate is paper thin. All the top tier Democrats turned this race down before State House Speaker Jeff Merkley finally jumped in. He had to fight a contentious primary with a vicious left-wing activist who almost won, and then his campaign spent months in the gutter, running poorly and letting the fairly conservative, (in comparison to past Republicans, like Mark Hatfield, who represented Oregon), Smith maintain a double digit lead in the ever more liberal state of Oregon. Then back in August he started turning his ship back around, moved in the polls, the DSCC came in guns barreling, and Smith’s campaign went in the gutter and he permanently alienated many conservatives who already disliked him for his moderate profile by running an ad talking about being a close ally of Barack Obama. The race moved to a tie after the economic downturn, and now Merkley has, to the envy of those who turned the race down, moved ahead and is sitting pretty at just under 50% in several polls, and is ahead now of Smith, with a lead outside of the polls MoE, or margin of Error. Disgruntled conservatives are casting a lot of votes for the third party candidate, and Smith now sports a double digit disapproval rating, the kiss of death. Democratic Pick Up.

Projection: Jeff Merkley, winner (D), 51-45, four going to Steven Frohnmayer, (I).

MN-SEN: Going to say as little as I can here. What a wasted opportunity though. Norm Coleman has a been a solid conservative, (voting with the party line 98% of the time in 2003, 2004, and 2005, on issues where a majority of one party voted against a majority of the other party). This was after he ran in 2002 promising to be a moderate voice in the senate. He only won because Democrat Paul Wellstone died in a plane wreck a week before the election after skipping a fundraising event and Rally with Walter Mondale and Ted Kennedy to attend the funeral of the father of a State Representative. Mondale proved unable to win as a last minute replacement. This year all the good candidates turned down the race for some reason, and Democrats are stuck with Al Franken, enough said, even though Franken has made the race close, he’s done it polling in the upper thirties, with Independent Party Dean Barkley, an ally of former wrestling Governor Jesse Ventura, taking a double digit slice of the polls. Coleman will win, despite his unpopularity. I don’t share other Democrats optimism here. Republican Hold.

Projection: Norm Coleman ®, 44-41-15, winner.

These next races could determine whether Democrats get a filibuster proof senate that will actually be able to, you know, make any major changes.

KY-SEN: That’s right, the Republican Minority leader is again in the fight for his life down in the bluegrass state. Democrats are licking their chops over the chance to destroy the Republican leadership and, more importantly, avenge Tom Daschle’s narrow defeat in 2004 at the hands of John Thune. However, Bruce Lunsford is no John Thune, and that’s the reason McConnell holds his seat. That and he has a massive, ironclad statewide organization, and has spent fourteen million on the race. The polls are close, but Kentucky is a conservative state. Republican Hold.

Projection: Mitch McConnell, ®, 53-47, winner.

MS-SEN: Trent Lott retired, and Haley Barbour appointed congressman Roger Wicker to the seat, surprising many who saw Congressman Chip Pickering Jr. as the heir apparent. (Pickering later retired abruptly to become a lobbyist). Democrats got former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, a highly conservative Democrat born on what was little more than a sharecroppers plot and broken down house and who lost his father as a teenager, forcing him to work to support his family. The race was initially promising, and close, but Wicker has pulled away, despite the economic downturn. Now, even if polls are overstating Wicker’s portion of the black vote, (an outrageously high 26% in the last one,; it’s never usually out of the single digits), Musgrove’s still down and looks to have lost this one. If the black turnout is insanely high and he wins those votes 96-4 though, look for a possible upset in steamy Mississippi. Republican Hold.

Projection: Roger Wicker, ®, 52-48. Winner.

GA-SEN: Now this is what real revenge feels like. After Saxby Chambliss won by accusing Democratic Senator Max Cleland of being unpatriotic and weak on terrorism in 2002, Democrats felt a hot hatred. Showing Cleland’s face beside Osama Bin Laden went over the line. As Cleland was a Vietnam war veteran, triple amputee, and former Secretary of Veteran Affairs, while Chambliss got a draft deferment so he wouldn’t have to serve in Vietnam. Former State Representative Jim Martin’s been moving ever since a big primary win of Vernon Jones, a former DeKalb county something. Anyway, when you’ve been accused of rape its not good for political campaigns. Martin lost by twelve points to Casey Cagle in the open Lieutenant Governor’s race back in 2006, but Georgia looks to have moved a lot further back towards the center since then. The DSCC is spending heavily heavy, (5.8 million by election, which is a lot, even in a big and expensive state like Georgia), and Chambliss has unloaded everything to no avail. The race remains a 3-4 point race, and Chambliss peaks out at 48% in the polls. This is likely to go to a run-off and make this long political season even longer. Once we get to the run-off then I can take a look and analyze the landscape there. RUN-OFF.

Last Senate Race.

LA-SEN: Republicans continue to play this field, and Louisiana is increasingly Republican, but polls continue to show Landrieu with the safe lead. As a state resident, I’m worried about this one. Some tightness here that I don’t think others feel or predict. Democratic Hold.

Projection: Mary Landrieu (D), 51-49.

Now for a quick go on Gubernatorial races. There only three that you really need to watch, four actually. The rest will be blowouts.

IN-GOV: Democrats thought they had a shot because Daniels was unpopular, but a tenuous primary and a poor general election campaign from former U.S. Representative Jill Long Thompson, along with a good campaign from Daniels, has led to this one moving out of reach. Bad news come redistricting time in 2010. Republican Hold

Projection: Mitch Daniels ®, 55-45. Winner.

WA-GOV: The rematch from the 2004 election. Christine Gregoire won by one hundred and twenty nine votes, yes, 129 votes, out of 2.7 million cast. Similar controversy to Florida, except the Democrat came on top of this one. Dino Rossi is running again, but Gregoire has established herself as an incumbent, and managed to attain a mild popularity though her simply effectiveness at getting things done. Still, far right groups such as the builders association are heavily pushing Rossi again this time, who is not running under the Republican brand, but under the “GOP Party” as he loses two points in the polls just by running as a “Republican”. This race has been locked at 51-48 Gregoire in every poll for two years. Things haven’t changed a bit. Obama’s huge coattails and her already narrowly put her on top though, and for the seventh time in a row, Washington State will elect a Democrat as its governor. Democratic hold.

Projection: Christine Gregoire, (D), 50.5-49.5, winner.

MO-GOV: Look, Democrats pick this up. Four term Attorney General Jay Nixon has been the favorite from day one. Governor Matt Blunt is deeply unpopular, and U.S. Representative Kenny Hulshof had to contend with a divisive primary and has failed to poll well in the general election. Democratic pick up.

Projection: Jay Nixon, (D), 56-44, winner.

NC-GOV: Closer than it should be, but Beverly Perdue had to run a contentious primary campaign, and has then run a poor campaign in the General election. Still, polls show her tied with Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. Democrats have held this for sixteen years straight, with only one Republican governor in the history of the state in between. With Obama making this close though, she should be able to pull ahead. Democratic Hold.

Projection: Beverly Perdue, (D), 50.3-49.7, winner.

Now I can’t, and just don’t have the time or the will power to write out histories for all the congressional races in one sitting. I’ll just lay out projections for you, okay?

Democratic Pick ups:

CA-04: Charlie Brown (D) (open due to scandal)

WA-08: Darcy Burner (D) beats Dave Reichert

ID-01: Walter Minnick, (D). (I’ll give you examples of this one though).*

AZ-01: Anne Kilpatrick (D). (open due to scandal)

NM-01: Martin Heinrich oh you know they’re Democrats

NM-02: Harry Teague (open)

CO-04: Betsy Markey beats Marilyn Musgrave, in Democratic trending district.

NV-03: State Senate Minority leader Dina Titus, against 3-term inc. Jon Porter. Democratic trending Clark county district.

LA-04: Paul Carmouche (D)

FL-08: Alan Grayson, Democratic trending Orlando based district

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas, (note, don’t run an ad apologizing for receiving a bribe from Jack Abramoff, it just doesn’t work, even in moderately Republican leaning districts, though this one is trending Democratic fast).

NC-08: Hayes is losing this time around. It didn’t help that he said “Democrats hate real Americans that work and have jobs and believe in god” at a McCain rally. Obama will win this district, as he is in polling, and over 25% of the district is black. Larry Kissell win after losing by 369 votes last time.

13. VA-05: Look for me to be the only one predicting this. Virgil Goode has had an interesting career. First a elected as a Democrat in 1996, he was so upset by Clinton that he became an independent and then a Republican. He’s controversial, and has made some bigoted, close minded remarks. But, late in this campaign season its come out that a movie called “Eden’s Curve” an artsy, movie about a Danville, (Goode’s hometown and located within his district I believe), teenager who goes to College in New York and explores his sexuality with his English Professor, is dedicated to Goode, and his Press Secretary even had a minor role in it. The movie openly depicts both homosexual and heterosexual sex scenes, foul language, and a savage beating. Now, being religious as he is this makes him look hypocritical. The truth is the whole story is rather weird and covered in layers of crap. Goode still probably has nothing to do with it, but the explanation is long and complicated and I doubt voters are willing to pay attention enough to hear after this many months of campaigning. Tom Perriello is running a strong campaign as a specialist in foreign policy. He’s been campaigning hard against Goode who largely ignored him almost right up till the end. He was down 64-30 in August, then 55-42 in September, and now on the election’s eve he’s down 50-47, and ahead by double digits in early voters, (twelve percent of the electorate). If the black vote is high I look for the upset. I’m still going to give it to him here. I missed several races like this back in 2006, mainly Jason Altmire, Nancy Boyda, Jerry McNerney, and Carol Shea-Porter.

14. VA-11: This district’s trended Democratic. Gerry Connelly has this one in the bag over a self-funder.

15. MD-01: Another surprise. Kravotil wins it because of geographical divides, and the fact that widely popular, liberal Republican incubment Wayne Gilchrest, (one of the few I really highly respected), has endorsed him and cut an ad for him over the Club for Growth funded Andy Harris who beat him in the primary. Bush got 61% of the vote here, but Kravotil’s running the right kind of campaign about independent voice and all that. Clsoe, but I think a pick up, especially with all the money the DCCC has dumped in here in the closing days of the campaign, (the same with VA-05).

16. PA-03: Kathy Dalhkemper has run a surprisingly good race and no looks to be the narrow favorite.

17. NY-13: Don’t even make me get started on this soap opera. Mike McMahon will win easily.

18. NY-25: Dan Maffei wins easily this time around, now that its an open seat and all the best Republicans declined to run.

19. NY-29: Wesley Clark chief of staff Eric Massa is doing really well in his rematch against Randy “threatened my wife with a shotgun at a dinner party” Kuhl. He wins this time.

20. CT-04: I just really don’t see Chris Shays hanging on again. Jim Himes wins after running a good campaign and with Obama’s huge coattails.

21. OH-01: Again, I just don’t see Chabot pulling it out this time. Steve Dreihaus seems to be the right Democrat to win this 50-50 swing district, (literally 50-50 in the last two elections).

22. OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy is definitely favored in the demographic trends here. Steve Shrivers is the best candidate Republicans could have hoped for though.

23. OH-16: Iraq war vet and state Senator John Boccieri is tailor made for this blue collar, Republican leaning swing district. He’s also run the better campaign over State Sen. Kirk Shuring.

24. MN-06: Michelle Bachman’s comments are infamous. Elwyn Tinklenburg, (what a political name) has raised an additional one million dollars in one week since her comments. He had already raised one million, so the moderate former State Secretary of Transportation has moved ahead in the polls too.

25. MN-03: I still think that Madia will win this, even if he has fallen behind in some of the polling.

26. AK-AL: Young is tackled by corruption to. Ethan Berkowitz becomes the second new Democrat to Alaska’s congressional delegation.

27. FL-21: okay, suitcases full of cash smuggled in from Puerto Rico. Not a good headline for an incumbent. That and the changing values of younger Cuban-Americans who are becoming more and more Democratic, and a strong Democrat in Raul Martinez, make this a narrow pick up between two titans in the Miami Cuban Community. The other two Cuban Republican held seats should be safe, but just barely, that will be clsoe races.

Republican Pick Ups:

1. PA-11: Kanjorski has lost this to far-right Lou Barletta. How incredible.

2. TX-22: Nick Lampson can’t hold Tom DeLay’s seat this time around. Pete Olson wins.

3. FL-16: A couples of words, BRIBED campaign worker after she threatened to reveal he cheated on his wife with her and several other campaign workers. Pittsburgh Steeler’s heir Tom Rooney wins this.

Possible Shockers, (both parties), R and D stand for the party that would pick up a if there is an upset:

1. WY-AL: Trauner is just a little behind, but may pull it off. D.

2. VA-02: Same with Glen Nye.

3. WV-02: 91 year old Robert Byrd is trying to groom a successor here. Anne Barth may have what it takes. D.

4. PA-12: Murtha stuck his foot in his mouth again. R.

5. KS-02: I don’t expect Boyda to lose. R.

5. GA-08: Goddard has kept this one close in this very Republican, Macon centered district, but Marshall is a conservative Democrat and a good campaigner with a political base in Macon. R.

6. SC-01: A note, don’t break a law and then change it to get out of the penalty. Just saying… D. Linda Ketner has run a good, well-funded campaign, but the District may just be too Republican for her to beat four term incumbent. And she’s openly gay, in the bible belt.

7. AL-02: Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright might just pull this off in this 2:1 Republican district, (was 66-33 in 2005). He’s got the endorsement of two of the districts biggest Republicans, including one who is McCain’s campaign chair for that region of the state. His background from the wiregrass area of the district, combined with his record in the Montgomery area make him the perfect Democrat to hold it. Did I mention Republicans were originally trying to get him to run for the open seat too? He’s that conservative. D.

8. NE-02: Lee Terry continues to decline as Omaha becomes more Democratic.

9. AZ-05: Bob Lord has run a great, well financed campaign, and hit Shadegg hard on his (un)-retirement. Still, this district was drawn to elect a Republican. D.

10. NV-02:This conservative, huge Nevada district could be an upset, but probably not. D

Presidential Election:

Obama holds all of Kerry’s state’s, plus picks up Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio. The total end result will be Obama 311 electoral votes, McCain 227. Obama will win 51-47 in popular, give or take a percentage point, and some very close races in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, and Nevada, even Virginia, though Obama has moved solidly in front according the last polls of the race. Hard to see how McCain holds all the toss ups and improbably picks up Pennsylvania to win.

11. IA-04: Becky Greenwald is close, and htis is a toss up district. D.

12. Mo-09: State Rep. Judy Baker’s running strong, but this is a conservative district. D.

I’d put on the actual results Wednesday, if they’re all in.